Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb354…32a6 other 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$475 (-12%) realized −$472 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%159W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$378
sports 17% −$71
world 1% −$17
crypto 0% −$12
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +22.0% +10.3% 37% 33% -24.2%
≤30d 27 +22.0% +10.3% 37% 33% -24.2%
≤90d 42 -6.5% -15.4% 31% 29% -32.2%
all 425 +2.4% -7.4% 37% 36% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 36% -21.0%
10% -16.2% 34% -28.6%
15% -24.3% 32% -35.5%
20% -31.8% 26% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$472
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses159 / 266
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)425 / 430
History coverage629d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 +$29 +49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$81 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$22 +272%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$17 +649%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$27 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +206%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$32 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3 +$6 +200%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $11 +$9 +78%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $16 −$8 -52%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $71 +$29 +41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $18 +$12 +69%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $2 +$8 +455%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $2 +$4 +265%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.17 · official $90.47 (match) · 911 history records