Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb350…bfb8 crypto 554 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$892 (-8%) realized −$892 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%236W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$561
sports 7% −$159
other 7% −$329
politics 1% +$10
culture 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -36.0% -42.1% 16% 11% -29.4%
≤30d 19 -36.0% -42.1% 16% 11% -29.4%
≤90d 19 -36.0% -42.1% 16% 11% -29.4%
all 552 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 42% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 42% -17.7%
10% -24.2% 42% -25.6%
15% -31.5% 41% -32.8%
20% -38.2% 41% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses236 / 316
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)552 / 554
History coverage143d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$25 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$24 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $70 −$20 -29%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Kings Mar 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $50 +$69 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$19 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 09 $9 +$14 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 09 $11 +$19 +174%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Mar 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Mar 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Mar 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $50 +$85 +171%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 +$30 +300%
Will OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06- BUY 27¢ $26 48m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.56 · official $74.56 · 1549 history records