Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb34d…622a crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$138 (+8%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.1% -3.1% 78% 50% -1.4%
≤30d 18 +7.1% -3.1% 78% 50% -1.4%
≤90d 18 +7.1% -3.1% 78% 50% -1.4%
all 18 +7.1% -3.1% 78% 50% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 50% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 22% -10.8%
15% -20.8% 22% -19.5%
20% -28.6% 17% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$47 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $87 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$56 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $68 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $93 +$57 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $132 +$68 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $153 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $247 −$147 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $97 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $337 +$53 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records