Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb34d…5222 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-12%) realized +$12 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$7
sports 30% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+65.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% +32.3%
≤30d 6 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% +32.3%
≤90d 6 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% +32.3%
all 6 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% +32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.5% 33% +32.3%
10% +49.7% 33% +19.7%
15% +35.2% 33% +8.1%
20% +22.0% 33% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$8 · ×3.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 28¢ $58 $33 −$25 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 $0 -8%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 +$18 +171%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $8 +$45 +543%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 43m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 47m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 47m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 48m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 30¢ $5 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $8 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 31¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 3h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.43 · official $75.44 (match) · 20 history records