Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb349…cd79 weather 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-10%) realized −$124 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%65W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$101
14 days−$79
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$36
crypto 21% −$68
sports 3% +$11
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -25.7% -32.8% 42% 38% -21.8%
≤30d 178 -12.9% -21.2% 37% 34% -19.5%
≤90d 179 -13.4% -21.6% 36% 34% -20.1%
all 179 -13.4% -21.6% 36% 34% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 34% -20.1%
10% -29.1% 31% -27.7%
15% -36.0% 26% -34.7%
20% -42.3% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses65 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)179 / 192
History coverage35d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? No 85¢ 99¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? No 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? No 83¢ 62¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? No 73¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? No 46¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 26? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? Jun 25 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $27 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? BUY No 83¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 62¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $41 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 46¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 73¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.61 · official $157.61 (match) · 313 history records