Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb347…a115 weather 366 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,221 (+11%) realized +$2,157 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%184W / 179L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day48.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$268
14 days+$311
30 days+$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,652
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+59.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +105.0% +85.5% 58% 42% -1.2%
≤30d 157 +100.9% +81.8% 56% 35% -5.0%
≤90d 363 +75.9% +59.2% 51% 32% -3.1%
all 363 +75.9% +59.2% 51% 32% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.2% 32% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here +43.9% 26% -12.4%
15% +30.0% 24% -20.8%
20% +17.3% 22% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late +101% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$764
Realized+$2,157
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses184 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)363 / 366
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $697 $747 +$50 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $1 $14 +$14 (+2175%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $0 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $204 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $22 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $325 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $580 +$111 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +2300%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $421 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$7 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +617%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $301 +$71 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$13 +707%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $850 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +375%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +344%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +337%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $457 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $122 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $763.80 · official $769.27 (match) · 3500 history records