Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb344…31ea sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+12%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$22
sports 45% +$20
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +11.6% +0.9% 74% 58% +2.2%
≤30d 31 +11.6% +0.9% 74% 58% +2.2%
≤90d 31 +11.6% +0.9% 74% 58% +2.2%
all 31 +11.6% +0.9% 74% 58% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 58% +2.2%
10% -8.7% 32% -7.6%
15% -17.5% 26% -16.5%
20% -25.6% 16% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $40 +$4 +10%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $30 +$8 +27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$6 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$8 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $26 +$9 +36%
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $5 +$3 +59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $1 +$3 +262%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goransson/King Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $12 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$1 +5%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $1 −$1 -84%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$3 -34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $3 $0 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 99¢ $44 1h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 90¢ $40 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $33 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 47h
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 68¢ $5 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $8 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 27¢ $1 2d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes SELL Andres Santamarta $0 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 62¢ $5 2d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 20¢ $1 2d
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goransson/King BUY Goransson/King 90¢ $5 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 84¢ $5 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 82¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 100¢ $11 2d
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 92¢ $10 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Texas Rangers 95¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records