Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb341…5838 crypto 529 markets active 16d ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-4%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate60%318W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$103
sports 16% −$18
other 13% −$26
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% −$5
weather 1% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 104 -29.7% -36.4% 42% 22% -28.5%
≤90d 479 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 32% -15.2%
all 529 -9.6% -18.3% 60% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 32% -14.1%
10% -26.1% 24% -22.3%
15% -33.2% 22% -29.8%
20% -39.8% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses318 / 211
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)529 / 529
History coverage89d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 529 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +102%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +159%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +109%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +228%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$2 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$4 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$4 +317%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$6 -195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$5 -193%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +110%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$6 -194%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -31%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$4 -191%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 18d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 18d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 18d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 18d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 18d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 18d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 1350 history records