Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B3 0xb33e…a7ba politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$1
other 28% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage110d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $107 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $107 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $107 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $105 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $105 13h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $105 22h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $105 34h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $105 15d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $105 18d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 28d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 30d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 38d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 38d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 40d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $106 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 43d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 46d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 47d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 47d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 47d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 47d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $107 70d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $107 71d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 79d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 80d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 83d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 83d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $107 87d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $107 88d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records