Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B3 0xb339…6a14 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$1,060 · open −$1,052

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$548per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-6.4%
≤30d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-6.4%
≤90d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-6.4%
all	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	50%	50%	-6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	50%	-6.4%
10%	-17.8%	50%	-15.4%
15%	-25.7%	50%	-23.6%
20%	-33.0%	50%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$505 vs −$472 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$673

Realized+$1,060

Unrealized−$1,052

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$548

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$438	$402	−$36 (-8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	20¢	18¢	$292	$270	−$22 (-8%)
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	67¢	0¢	$994	$1	−$993 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$500	+$505	+101%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime?	Jun 23	$485	−$472	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	20¢	$299	3m
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	67¢	$1,004	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$500	4h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	6¢	$485	6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$450	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.65 · official $745.73 · 6 history records