Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B3
0xb338…7a24
weather · 723 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$45 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$808
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses565 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions76
Markets (closed)647 / 723
History coverage32d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day81.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 76 History 647 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$162
14 days−$64
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? No 69¢ 100¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 94¢ 95¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 83¢ 98¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 75¢ 100¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 95¢ 97¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 87¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 75¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 81¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 85¢ 80¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 97¢ 92¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 95¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 85¢ 76¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $14 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $8 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 08 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$44
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -7.9% -16.7% 82% 35% -21.3%
≤30d 583 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 647 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 40% -10.1%
all 647 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 40% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover81.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 40% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 21% -18.7%
15% -24.8% 10% -26.5%
20% -32.1% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.97 · official $807.97 (match) · 3321 history records