Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb333…31bd crypto 1931 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+0%) realized +$204 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate80%1563W / 397L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$268
14 days+$544
30 days+$724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 -2.8% -12.0% 75% 57% -8.1%
≤30d 1627 +2.6% -7.2% 79% 58% -7.1%
≤90d 1960 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 57% -7.2%
all 1960 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 57% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 57% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 37% -16.1%
15% -24.4% 21% -24.2%
20% -31.8% 13% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1563 / 397
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1960 / 1931
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1960 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 393 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $86 +$14 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$24 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$24 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $88 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$17 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $92 −$91 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$18 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$44 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$6 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $76 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $76 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $66 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $88 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $83 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $55 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $83 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $65 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $58 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $92 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $93 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $82 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $80 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $56 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $94 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $92 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $89 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $73 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $85 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $93 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $80 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $80 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records