Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B3 0xb329…8041 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$150 (+21%) realized +$124 · open +$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip

Net edge+54%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate65%17W / 9L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$136

7 days+$208

14 days+$208

30 days+$208

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+60.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+77.2%	+60.3%	65%	65%	+37.9%
≤30d	26	+77.2%	+60.3%	65%	65%	+37.9%
≤90d	26	+77.2%	+60.3%	65%	65%	+37.9%
all	26	+77.2%	+60.3%	65%	65%	+37.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+60.3%	65%	+37.9%
10%	+45.0%	58%	+24.7%
15%	+31.0%	58%	+12.7%
20%	+18.1%	54%	+1.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +84% → late +70% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$301

Realized+$124

Unrealized+$26

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses17 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)26 / 33

History coverage8d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	4¢	$100	$169	+$69 (+69%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$70	$70	+$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	7¢	$100	$60	−$40 (-40%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$2	−$2 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 22	$50	+$11	+21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	+$27	+54%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	+$18	+344%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$4	+$2	+57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$14	+140%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$50	+$10	+20%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	+$45	+874%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$16	+52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	Jun 20	$10	+$18	+172%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	Jun 20	$5	+$33	+634%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$19	+$14	+70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	+$5	+90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$8	+76%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202	Jun 19	$15	+$14	+90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	+$22	+109%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$30	+$12	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	99¢	$61	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Argent	BUY	34¢	$10	4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	44¢	$15	19h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	23h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	81¢	$50	25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	1¢	$2	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	27h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	28h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	83¢	$50	40h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	41¢	$10	42h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	25¢	$10	46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	12¢	$5	46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$4	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$19	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202	BUY	52¢	$15	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	BUY	36¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	BUY	13¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.99 · official $311.47 · 60 history records