Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:56:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb329…5851 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% $0
politics 25% −$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage101d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $117 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 29 $117 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $117 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $117 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $119 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $119 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $119 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 14h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 14h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 15h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 8d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $117 15d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $117 17d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $117 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $117 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $117 34d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $117 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $117 38d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $117 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $118 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $117 42d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 48d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 49d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $117 51d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $118 52d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $118 52d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $118 53d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $119 75d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $119 76d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $119 79d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $119 79d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $119 81d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 82d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 82d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records