Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb323…e19f sports 666 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate78%496W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$2
crypto 32% −$9
other 21% +$9
culture 4% +$5
world 2% +$3
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.5% -5.5% 89% 54% -5.7%
≤30d 91 +3.6% -6.3% 85% 47% -2.9%
≤90d 579 -1.1% -10.6% 79% 43% -8.9%
all 633 -1.9% -11.2% 78% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -9.0%
10% -19.7% 17% -17.7%
15% -27.5% 7% -25.7%
20% -34.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses496 / 137
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)633 / 666
History coverage95d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 81¢ 83¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Avengers: Doomsday 89¢ 89¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 94¢ 89¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 86¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No 86¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? No 76¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Jonathan Majors as Kang? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 19 $2 $0 +20%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Greece (-1.5) Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -59%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -54%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 $0 +36%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 29m
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 31m
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 31m
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 32m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $1 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 92¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $1 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $0 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $1 4d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $1 4d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 89¢ $2 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $2 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $1 4d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.08 · official $65.61 (match) · 1512 history records