Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb323…c731 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$424 (-15%) realized −$454 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$43
14 days−$255
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$7
politics 29% −$277
crypto 23% −$177
sports 7% −$50
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 50% -52.7%
≤30d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 50% -30.1%
≤90d 30 -16.5% -24.5% 60% 47% -35.2%
all 30 -16.5% -24.5% 60% 47% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 47% -35.2%
10% -31.7% 20% -41.4%
15% -38.3% 17% -47.0%
20% -44.4% 7% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$54 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,065
Realized−$454
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage65d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $200 $234 +$34 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $150 $196 +$46 (+31%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $80 $133 +$53 (+67%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $125 $98 −$27 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $80 −$45 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $824 −$280 -34%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $80 +$5 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 +$49 +49%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $102 −$62 -61%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Trump say "Insurance" during Healthcare Affordability Events? May 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 18 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 18 $103 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 18 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 17 $31 −$26 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? Apr 27 $2 $0 +6%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $1 $0 +26%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Good Looking" during NCAA National Champions remarks o Apr 21 $1 +$1 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $12 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 11d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $193 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $85 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $149 11d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $413 23d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $351 25d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 31¢ $411 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $40 32d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 49¢ $115 33d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 36d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 36d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $118 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $120 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 37d
Will Trump say "Insurance" during Healthcare Affordability Events? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,065.13 · official $1,065.13 (match) · 139 history records