Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb322…0067 politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$23
other 41% −$16
sports 6% +$61
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 117 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 6% -9.5%
all 125 -1.6% -10.9% 7% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 6% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 6% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×15.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage116d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $309 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $284 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $336 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $309 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $260 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $237 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $588 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $315 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $236 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $288 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $532 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $588 −$3 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $307 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $578 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $48 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 6h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 14h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 39h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 7d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 19d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $244 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.83 · official $47.83 (match) · 377 history records