Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb31f…8f9a other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 119L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$94
14 days−$101
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$18
politics 29% −$101
sports 18% −$6
crypto 10% −$13
culture 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
finance 3% −$3
tech 2% −$4
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 70 -1.3% -10.7% 9% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 119 -0.9% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.3%
all 132 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage101d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 97¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $224 −$2 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $195 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $104 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $91 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $946 −$43 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $108 −$42 -39%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $442 +$2 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $40 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $9 $0 -3%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $57 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $48 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $61 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $120 −$2 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $46 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $46 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $45 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $45 11h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 12h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 16h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 16h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 24h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 25h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $39 32h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 33h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 37h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $61 37h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $61 46h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 46h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $37 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $46 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $47 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $52 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $53 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.01 · official $57.01 (match) · 477 history records