Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb31d…68a0 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,066 (-28%) realized −$2,980 · open −$86
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$604
30 days−$1,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$2,299
other 37% −$1,210
crypto 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 -62.3% -65.9% 16% 11% -48.2%
≤90d 61 -41.3% -46.9% 31% 26% -38.4%
all 72 -45.2% -50.5% 29% 25% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.5% 25% -39.7%
10% -55.2% 21% -45.4%
15% -59.5% 17% -50.7%
20% -63.5% 12% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$107 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,980
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage123d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Over $87 $1 −$86 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $499 −$476 -95%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $131 −$128 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,266 −$1,260 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $526 +$741 +141%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $578 −$52 -9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $101 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -64%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 May 31 $156 +$21 +13%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $134 −$131 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 May 19 $695 −$689 -99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $201 −$119 -59%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 17 $840 −$835 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $121 −$120 -99%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $704 +$257 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $505 +$322 +64%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $229 −$183 -80%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $30 −$2 -6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $203 −$190 -94%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $171 +$29 +17%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 12 $140 +$34 +24%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $99 +$41 +42%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $413 −$411 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $97 +$24 +25%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$43 +43%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $261 +$92 +35%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $555 −$42 -8%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $10 −$5 -52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $151 +$29 +19%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $3 −$2 -73%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $285 +$4 +2%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $25 +$31 +122%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $12 +$9 +76%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $95 +$161 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $89 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 17¢ $72 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $12 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $498 9d
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 10¢ $131 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,266 14d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,267 16d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $526 16d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 35¢ $526 16d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $578 16d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes $3 17d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 17d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 65¢ $93 17d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 17d
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $176 18d
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $156 18d
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 18d
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy SELL Cheddy $0 18d
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy BUY Cheddy 10¢ $10 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder $1 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 98¢ $610 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 49¢ $310 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 29¢ $150 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $17.52 · 136 history records