Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb31d…d279 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%72W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$10
world 27% $0
crypto 23% −$2
tech 7% −$9
finance 7% −$11
politics 3% −$5
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 40% 40% +8.2%
≤30d 7 +18.6% +7.3% 57% 43% +8.2%
≤90d 26 -10.5% -19.0% 42% 27% -9.9%
all 125 -9.2% -17.8% 58% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -13.1%
10% -25.7% 20% -21.4%
15% -32.9% 14% -29.0%
20% -39.4% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses72 / 53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)125 / 130
History coverage140d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 82¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 79¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 21 $1 $0 +37%
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? May 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? May 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? May 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? May 05 $1 $0 +8%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? Apr 30 $5 +$1 +10%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 28 $1 $0 -8%
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Apr 27 $10 −$2 -18%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Apr 27 $5 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 19 $1 $0 -10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 19 $1 +$2 +178%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 28 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Mar 18 $2 $0 +16%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Mar 17 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 13 $20 −$7 -37%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Mar 10 $2 $0 +7%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $2 $0 +23%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Mar 09 $1 +$1 +68%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $1 $0 +32%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Epic Games IPO before 2027? Mar 06 $10 +$1 +9%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Mar 06 $15 +$2 +14%
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? Mar 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 03 $10 +$2 +19%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +88%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Galatasaray advance to the round of 16? Feb 27 $1 $0 +14%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $4 −$1 -16%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $3 −$1 -42%
Ledger IPO before 2027? Feb 26 $1 $0 +6%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? Feb 26 $10 −$3 -27%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -61%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 23h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $22 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $3 3d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $10 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $7 5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $5 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 82¢ $2 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 75¢ $2 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $17 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $15 34d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 79¢ $1 35d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 35d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 35d
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? SELL No 81¢ $5 35d
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 35d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL No $0 35d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 42d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $1 42d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $11 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.93 · official $14.93 (match) · 287 history records