Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb31c…1d7b crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$108 (-46%) realized −$109 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -32.2% -38.7% 35% 35% -62.2%
≤30d 17 -32.2% -38.7% 35% 35% -62.2%
≤90d 17 -32.2% -38.7% 35% 35% -62.2%
all 17 -32.2% -38.7% 35% 35% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 35% -62.2%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 29% -65.8%
15% -49.9% 29% -69.1%
20% -54.8% 29% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 56m
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.12 · official $16.12 (match) · 50 history records