Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B3 0xb31a…89cc other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,262 (+1%) realized +$3,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%25W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$1,642per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$42
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$549
politics 33% −$108
sports 14% +$3,962
culture 3% −$9
world 2% −$32
crypto 1% −$34
economics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +10.0% -0.5% 11% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 97 +4.9% -5.1% 8% 6% -8.1%
all 157 +5.7% -4.4% 16% 13% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 13% -8.4%
10% -13.6% 13% -17.2%
15% -21.9% 12% -25.2%
20% -29.6% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,928) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$11 · ×16.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$3,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses25 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,642
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $290 $290 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $215 $215 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $3,687 −$5 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,928 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $219 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $5,164 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,213 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $5,766 −$8 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,214 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,772 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $3,010 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,278 −$5 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $70 +$77 +109%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,845 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $52 +$73 +140%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,699 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $54 +$66 +124%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3,132 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $1,702 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,168 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $2,885 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,183 −$4 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $85 +$64 +76%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,581 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $7,095 −$8 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $4,608 −$6 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,698 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $3,215 −$5 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $215 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 20h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 21h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $247 25h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $248 27h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $218 45h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $219 46h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $339 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $339 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $274 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $218 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $219 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $218 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $218 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $206 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $206 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,585 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,663 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,665 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 10d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 10d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,645 12d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,648 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.79 · official $504.79 (match) · 569 history records