Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb31a…6e06 world 78 markets active 2d ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%26W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$31
sports 24% −$7
politics 21% +$1
other 16% −$3
economics 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -9.9% 32% 4% -11.4%
≤90d 71 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 3% -10.7%
all 77 -3.1% -12.3% 34% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -11.1%
10% -20.7% 1% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 1% -27.4%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage523d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $19 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $18 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $70 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $19 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $29 −$13 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $4 +$2 +40%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $60 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $139 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 14 $48 $0 +1%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $23 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $20 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 37¢ $20 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $20 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 300 history records