Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb31a…8817 weather 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-12%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$47
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$75
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -18.6%
≤30d 28 -15.4% -23.4% 0% 0% -22.9%
≤90d 28 -15.4% -23.4% 0% 0% -22.9%
all 28 -15.4% -23.4% 0% 0% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 0% -22.9%
10% -30.7% 0% -30.3%
15% -37.4% 0% -37.0%
20% -43.6% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$14 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $52 −$13 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $14 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $22 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $47 −$27 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 57¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 24¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 25¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 46¢ $22 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 47¢ $24 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 57¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 46¢ $12 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 50¢ $12 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 52¢ $26 30h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 30¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 31¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 33¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records