Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb318…67bd politics 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,752 (+1%) realized +$1,752 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,237per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$29
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$104
other 33% +$3,569
sports 11% −$1,732
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% −$2
world 1% −$12
crypto 0% +$4
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 76 +2.0% -7.7% 8% 4% -7.1%
all 146 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 10% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 10% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 10% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,828) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$20 · ×7.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$1,752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,237
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $273 $273 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $2,922 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,381 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,001 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,292 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,097 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $349 +$4 +1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,787 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,883 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,184 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $2,330 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,205 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,729 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,286 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $67 +$65 +97%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,529 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $338 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $452 +$3 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,617 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,361 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,828 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $976 −$2 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,320 −$3 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $62 +$56 +90%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,464 −$5 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,372 −$3 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,060 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $2,430 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $210 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 28h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,116 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,118 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,008 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,004 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,005 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $974 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $975 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,138 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,139 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,009 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $349 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $995 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,232 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,234 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.18 · official $273.18 (match) · 491 history records