Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb317…c521 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-10%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$9
world 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤30d 12 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤90d 12 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -20.3%
all 12 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 50% -20.3%
10% -24.3% 50% -27.9%
15% -31.6% 50% -34.9%
20% -38.3% 33% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$15 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $37 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.76 · official $17.88 (match) · 20 history records