Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb315…d6c9 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,094 (-7%) realized −$934 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%63W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$94
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$2,245
other 39% +$460
tech 1% +$175
politics 1% −$89
world 0% +$56
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +111.0% +90.9% 38% 38% -6.4%
≤30d 30 +104.0% +84.6% 37% 37% -11.0%
≤90d 64 +34.1% +21.3% 33% 33% -13.4%
all 163 +5.8% -4.3% 39% 36% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 36% -17.9%
10% -13.5% 36% -25.7%
15% -21.8% 35% -32.9%
20% -29.5% 31% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$77 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$934
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses63 / 100
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage293d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$92 -90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $117 +$35 +30%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $51 +$24 +48%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$263 +257%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $174 −$71 -41%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $51 +$50 +98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $236 +$146 +62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$48 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$80 +391%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$156 +1521%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $76 +$83 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$111 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $170 +$255 +150%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $147 −$145 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $219 −$34 -16%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $110 −$108 -98%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 03 $223 −$219 -98%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic Apr 03 $100 +$123 +124%
Bucharest Open: Alex Molcan vs Mariano Navone Apr 03 $150 −$148 -99%
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Botic van de Zandschulp Apr 03 $100 −$98 -98%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Learner Tien vs Nishesh Basavareddy Apr 02 $100 −$98 -98%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Brandon Apr 02 $50 −$49 -98%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 02 $100 −$98 -98%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton vs Zhizhen Zhang Apr 02 $100 −$97 -97%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Mackenzie Apr 01 $61 −$60 -98%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Karim Bennani vs Yannick Hanfmann Apr 01 $50 −$49 -98%
Bucharest Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcan Apr 01 $30 −$29 -98%
Bucharest Open: Nuno Borges vs Damir Dzumhur Apr 01 $50 −$49 -98%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Timofey Skatov vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 01 $50 +$73 +146%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $156 +$294 +188%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Mackenzie McDonald vs Jenson Brooks Mar 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $193 +$146 +75%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $111 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 4¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 18¢ $42 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $102 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $51 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 14¢ $15 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 57¢ $109 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 57¢ $4 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 57¢ $25 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 57¢ $4 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 57¢ $4 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 57¢ $4 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 5h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 44¢ $75 6h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 30¢ $51 7h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 10¢ $10 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $365 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $71 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 42¢ $382 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $103 31h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 32¢ $102 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $102 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 17¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $30 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 33¢ $51 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 72¢ $100 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 35¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 36¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 338 history records