Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B3 0xb315…a1e1 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$50 (+15%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$61
crypto 30% +$104
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+56.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -31.8%
≤30d 5 +107.9% +88.1% 60% 40% +6.3%
≤90d 6 +73.3% +56.8% 50% 33% +2.8%
all 6 +73.3% +56.8% 50% 33% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.8% 33% +2.8%
10% +41.8% 33% -7.0%
15% +28.1% 17% -16.0%
20% +15.5% 17% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage62d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $205 −$51 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $81 +$19 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$88 +635%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $11 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $155 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 1¢ $2 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 80¢ $81 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 13¢ $14 15d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 61d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records