Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb314…9459 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,748 (+1%) realized +$1,748 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%32W / 109L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,346per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$145
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$101
other 40% +$23
sports 11% +$1,747
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -13.9% -22.1% 7% 3% -9.0%
all 141 -0.8% -10.3% 23% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 11% -8.7%
10% -18.9% 11% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 11% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,914) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$9 · ×8.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$1,748
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses32 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,346
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $329 $330 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,772 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,914 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,920 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,544 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,556 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,775 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,908 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,761 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $459 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $546 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $832 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,065 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $832 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $82 +$65 +79%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,223 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $65 +$63 +97%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,296 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $2,223 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 10 $930 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,549 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $3,622 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $3,206 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $5,503 −$6 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $1,224 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $530 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $531 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $498 3h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $499 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $844 45h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $845 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $805 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $866 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $867 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $330 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,234 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,236 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,147 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $935 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $937 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $815 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $906 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $908 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,142 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,144 11d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 11d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,050 12d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 40¢ $45 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.92 · official $329.92 (match) · 444 history records