Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B3 0xb311…68ae crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$370 (+11%) realized +$380 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$186
economics 42% +$220
crypto 10% −$38
other 6% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 25% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 25% +1.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -8.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -17.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$12 · ×8.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.95 per $1 lost it wins $8.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized+$380
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage309d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $188 $180 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 28 $1,300 +$196 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 19? Sep 19 $100 −$35 -36%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 19 $200 −$10 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $1,125 +$213 +19%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 29 $246 −$1 -0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 29? Aug 29 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 29? Aug 29 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $193 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 1h
US government shutdown in 2025? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,496 272d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY Yes 65¢ $108 280d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 85¢ $108 280d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY Yes 65¢ $292 280d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 280d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 280d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY Yes 64¢ $500 280d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 19? SELL No 19¢ $65 281d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 19? BUY No 29¢ $100 281d
US government shutdown by October 1? SELL No 57¢ $190 281d
US government shutdown by October 1? BUY No 60¢ $200 281d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 283d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,338 283d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $348 294d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $232 294d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 81¢ $545 302d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $245 302d
Ethereum above $3800 on August 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 302d
Ethereum above $3800 on August 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 302d
Ethereum above $4000 on August 29? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 302d
Ethereum above $4000 on August 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 302d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 303d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $234 308d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.23 · official $378.23 (match) · 28 history records