Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb310…6df3 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$6
economics 24% −$2
other 16% −$4
crypto 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 +0.6% -8.9% 79% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage249d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 19? Mar 22 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 03 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 03 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 14? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? Mar 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 5? Feb 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? Jan 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? Jan 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 01 $4,200 −$4 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $4,208 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $4,211 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $4,223 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? Dec 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 9? Dec 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 5? Dec 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 29? Dec 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 20? Nov 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 29? Nov 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 20? Oct 21 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 20 $2,034 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $2,048 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 19? Oct 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $4,222 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 35d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 38d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $66 95d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $28 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 114d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $46 116d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 147d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $38 148d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 163d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 167d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $4,196 174d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4,200 174d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $4,204 174d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4,208 174d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $4,207 174d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,211 174d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,219 174d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,223 174d
Will Base launch a token in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $45 177d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.76 · official $130.76 (match) · 244 history records