Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb30f…9342 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-6%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$93
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 50% -23.6%
≤30d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 50% -23.6%
≤90d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 50% -23.6%
all 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 50% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 50% -23.6%
10% -15.9% 50% -31.0%
15% -24.0% 33% -37.6%
20% -31.5% 0% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$100 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)6 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $135 +$61 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 +$43 +47%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $46 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $82 47m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 55m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 57m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $98 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $196 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $135 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $92 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $46 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.83 · official $563.83 (match) · 22 history records