Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb30b…2d29 crypto 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-15%) realized −$215 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%41W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days−$263
14 days−$263
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$83
other 18% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -24.6% -31.8% 40% 40% -37.3%
≤30d 53 -24.6% -31.8% 40% 40% -37.3%
≤90d 92 -17.7% -25.5% 45% 40% -31.9%
all 92 -17.7% -25.5% 45% 40% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 40% -31.9%
10% -32.6% 34% -38.4%
15% -39.1% 29% -44.3%
20% -45.1% 24% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses41 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage36d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 0¢ 20¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $38 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$41 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$74 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $159 −$132 -83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.43 · official $30.65 · 202 history records