Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb305…a400 sports 606 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$173 (-2%) realized −$177 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%231W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days−$80
14 days−$72
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$275
other 32% −$18
crypto 1% −$23
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +2.6% -7.1% 39% 39% -14.9%
≤30d 260 -12.2% -20.6% 38% 38% -16.8%
≤90d 593 -8.8% -17.5% 39% 39% -12.8%
all 593 -8.8% -17.5% 39% 39% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 39% -12.8%
10% -25.4% 37% -21.1%
15% -32.6% 34% -28.7%
20% -39.2% 30% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses231 / 362
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions13
Markets (closed)593 / 606
History coverage72d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 73¢ 88¢ $37 $44 +$7 (+19%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $46 $40 −$6 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+53%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 28¢ 26¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England leading at halftime? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$10 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$32 +152%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $34 +$25 +73%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$25 -69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$28 +550%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$34 +1116%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$12 +83%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $16 +$35 +215%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$19 +105%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$12 +284%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $25 +$29 +114%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $53 +$18 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +135%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -89%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +197%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $82 +$19 +23%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 +$11 +75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$20 +124%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $11 −$7 -61%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 −$35 -71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$15 +238%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $30 +$11 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $15 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $12 16h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 39¢ $21 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 18h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 18h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $15 20h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $2 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $18 22h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 8¢ $3 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 33h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 33h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 36h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 10¢ $5 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $14 36h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $20 41h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $4 42h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 74¢ $53 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 43h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 44h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.65 · official $281.66 (match) · 1304 history records