Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb305…2fe5 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-20%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$5
politics 44% −$48
crypto 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -49.1% -54.0% 0% 0% -54.0%
≤30d 5 -40.5% -46.2% 40% 20% -30.6%
≤90d 5 -40.5% -46.2% 40% 20% -30.6%
all 5 -40.5% -46.2% 40% 20% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 20% -30.6%
10% -51.3% 20% -37.2%
15% -56.0% 20% -43.3%
20% -60.3% 0% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$27 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage62d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 21 $98 −$48 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 13 $71 +$27 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $32 −$31 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 22? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? SELL No 44¢ $50 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY No 86¢ $98 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records