Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb303…c818 politics 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
politics 38% −$14
sports 4% −$10
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 101 -0.5% -9.9% 5% 3% -9.5%
all 116 -3.7% -12.8% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage116d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $175 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $393 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 23 $194 −$1 -1%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $450 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $649 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $332 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $388 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 03 $342 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $170 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $197 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 22 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $411 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 20 $229 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 21h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 27h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 47h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 23d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 25d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $231 26d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 26d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 27d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 29d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $175 29d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $175 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $172 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $172 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $158 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.96 · official $83.96 (match) · 372 history records