Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2fd…f3a5 crypto 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$497 (-6%) realized −$493 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%80W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$64
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$670
other 5% −$87
world 2% +$158
culture 1% −$17
sports 1% +$33
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +68.2% +52.1% 33% 33% -35.9%
≤30d 19 +66.9% +51.0% 37% 37% -31.7%
≤90d 81 +8.5% -1.8% 42% 38% -45.2%
all 175 -4.0% -13.1% 46% 43% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 43% -15.8%
10% -21.5% 33% -23.9%
15% -29.0% 27% -31.2%
20% -36.0% 20% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$493
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses80 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)175 / 183
History coverage412d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 +$14 +60%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$30 +1467%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$17 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $18 +$7 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 29 $2 +$27 +1329%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 29 $25 +$56 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 29 $17 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 29 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 29 $65 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $190 −$86 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 29 $110 −$54 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 29 $365 +$32 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 29 $119 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 18h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $25 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 9d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.05 · official $72.06 (match) · 452 history records