Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb2fa…8755
other · 17 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$113 +37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$124
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$380
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)4 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%
Chart Positions 13 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $18 −$15 -80%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +722%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 84% +$104
crypto 16% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes $4 20m
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes $3 27m
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 39m
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 43¢ $7 39m
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No $2 1h
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No $2 1h
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No $1 1h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 1h
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No $2 2h
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No $22 2h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $16 2h
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2h
Will Alex Freeman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $34 2h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+108.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +130.4% +108.4% 25% 25% -54.8%
≤30d 4 +130.4% +108.4% 25% 25% -54.8%
≤90d 4 +130.4% +108.4% 25% 25% -54.8%
all 4 +130.4% +108.4% 25% 25% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +108.4% 25% -54.8%
10% +88.5% 25% -59.1%
15% +70.3% 25% -63.0%
20% +53.6% 25% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.22 · official $380.23 (match) · 85 history records