Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2f9…b146 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+5%) realized +$14 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$11
world 16% −$8
sports 6% −$6
politics 4% +$6
other 4% −$3
finance 3% −$5
weather 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 17% 17% -33.9%
≤30d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 17% 17% -33.9%
≤90d 61 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 21% -27.5%
all 61 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 21% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 21% -27.5%
10% -19.3% 20% -34.5%
15% -27.1% 18% -40.8%
20% -34.2% 18% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)61 / 74
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 5¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 34¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Natus Vincere 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-80%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$8 +747%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$13 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$49 +4579%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$22 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -36%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on May 2, 2026? May 03 $2 $0 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 01 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 01 $6 +$5 +82%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 01 $2 +$2 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 01 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 01 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $1 +$5 +522%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 28 $2 +$4 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 26? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $1 35m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 0¢ $1 36m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 0¢ $1 37m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 40m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 41¢ $11 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 14¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 19¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.22 · official $30.25 (match) · 191 history records