Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2f5…ffac crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+6%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$2
world 27% $0
other 17% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -17.3%
≤30d 10 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -17.3%
≤90d 10 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -17.3%
all 10 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 50% -17.3%
10% -7.0% 50% -25.2%
15% -16.0% 40% -32.5%
20% -24.2% 40% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +245%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.94 · official $5.94 (match) · 27 history records