Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb2f0…54e0 crypto 1741 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%1615W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$90
other 25% +$11
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 1735 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 6% -10.2%
all 1735 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 6% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 3% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1615 / 120
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1735 / 1741
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1735 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 2? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 22? May 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 20? May 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 20? May 21 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on May 20? May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 20? May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 20? May 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 20? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 15? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 15? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 14? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on May 13? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 13? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 13? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 10 $5 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 10 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 10 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 10 $6 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - May 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 10 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 BUY No 99¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $6 22d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $6 23d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 99¢ $6 26d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $6 27d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 27d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 28d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 28d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 28d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $6 28d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 28d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $3 28d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $6 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.87 · official $35.86 (match) · 3500 history records