Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2ef…3843 world 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,135 (-8%) realized −$8,114 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate60%72W / 48L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$8,421
14 days−$10,366
30 days−$9,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$7,275
other 13% −$581
politics 0% −$146
crypto 0% −$40
sports 0% −$10
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.7% -12.8% 57% 50% -85.6%
≤30d 62 -14.2% -22.4% 55% 44% -48.9%
≤90d 67 -13.9% -22.1% 57% 40% -48.3%
all 120 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 37% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 37% -16.5%
10% -25.6% 29% -24.5%
15% -32.8% 19% -31.8%
20% -39.4% 13% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$248 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$621
Realized−$8,114
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses72 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)120 / 146
History coverage155d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 86¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $108 $80 −$28 (-26%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 67¢ 94¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 95¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 90¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+12%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 65¢ 63¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 74¢ 28¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-63%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 27¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-27%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 64¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 77¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 63¢ 13¢ $36 $7 −$29 (-79%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 88¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 20 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$21 -42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$4 +420%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$5 +11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $50 +$22 +44%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $34 +$26 +76%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$9 +28%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,958 −$1,769 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $7,186 −$6,673 -93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $1,000 +$192 +19%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 202 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 11m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 30¢ $10 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 13m
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 25¢ $10 16m
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $20 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 57¢ $55 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 20h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $29 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $22 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $17 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 28h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 38h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 92¢ $4 43h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 8¢ $3 43h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 0¢ $0 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 88¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $620.75 · official $620.75 (match) · 353 history records