Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb2ed…4418 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$255 (-1%) realized −$975 · open +$720
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,937
7 days+$1,751
14 days+$1,163
30 days+$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$3,061
other 20% −$1,865
politics 10% −$804
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.3% -0.2% 43% 43% +2.9%
≤30d 25 +6.1% -4.0% 44% 44% -5.4%
≤90d 31 -7.8% -16.6% 39% 39% -11.2%
all 31 -7.8% -16.6% 39% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 39% -11.2%
10% -24.6% 39% -19.7%
15% -31.9% 39% -27.5%
20% -38.5% 35% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$812) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$792 vs −$518 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$3,706
Realized−$975
Unrealized+$720
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions9
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage77d
Avg bet$526
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $700 $1,555 +$855 (+122%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1,000 $976 −$24 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $480 $472 −$9 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $250 $240 −$10 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $155 $171 +$16 (+10%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $72 −$78 (-52%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $995 +$1,279 +129%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,419 −$1,390 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $373 −$364 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $444 −$437 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$534 +105%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $606 −$600 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $812 +$819 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $409 +$1,256 +307%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $335 −$327 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $457 +$284 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 15 $1,906 −$798 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $613 +$1,530 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $304 +$296 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $608 +$503 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $660 +$1,492 +226%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 06 $600 −$588 -98%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5) Jun 03 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Panthers vs. Penguins Jun 03 $1 $0 +47%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 03 $576 +$514 +89%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $952 +$997 +105%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $249 −$244 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $712 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $2,274 5h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $995 15h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $491 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,024 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $398 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 32h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $69 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $26 32h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $305 33h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 48¢ $139 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $144 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $113 35h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 48¢ $508 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $606 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,631 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,665 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $205 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $407 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $2 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $26 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $26 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $26 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,705.68 · official $3,705.68 (match) · 155 history records