Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2ed…aa3e sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$99 (+1%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$77
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$70
other 37% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 13 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 8% -9.5%
all 13 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 8% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -22.9% 8% -26.1%
20% -30.5% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage14d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $1,054 +$35 +3%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $471 +$14 +3%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $1,110 +$20 +2%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 −$2 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,553 +$10 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $222 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $987 −$80 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $70 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $77 +$6 +7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 92¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 92¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 92¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 92¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 91¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 85¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 68¢ $204 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 69¢ $78 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 68¢ $204 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 67¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 73¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 80¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 81¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 75¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 75¢ $65 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 84¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 90¢ $69 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 90¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 98¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 96¢ $96 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 96¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 98¢ $163 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 98¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 98¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 98¢ $74 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 96¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 96¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 96¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 96¢ $87 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 96¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $1.10 (match) · 365 history records