Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

B2 0xb2ec…3344 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 568d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,102 (-55%) realized −$2,104 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate32%6W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$183per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1,800

7 days−$1,741

14 days−$1,741

30 days−$1,741

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-34.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-30.1%	-36.7%	25%	25%	-76.2%
≤30d	8	-30.1%	-36.7%	25%	25%	-76.2%
≤90d	8	-30.1%	-36.7%	25%	25%	-76.2%
all	19	-27.2%	-34.2%	32%	32%	-60.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.2%	32%	-60.6%
10%	-40.5%	32%	-64.4%
15%	-46.2%	32%	-67.8%
20%	-51.5%	26%	-71.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -33% → late -22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$106 vs −$213 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.23 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized−$2,104

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses6 / 13

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage568d

Avg bet$183

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	17¢	$30	$31	+$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$634	−$510	-80%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$505	−$376	-74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,003	−$1,000	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$105	+206%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$50	−$50	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$110	+108%
Will Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Feb 25	$50	+$61	+122%
Will Trump say "Capital of the World" during the 2026 State of the Uni	Feb 25	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Feb 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Feb 25	$200	−$200	-100%
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?	Dec 13	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04?	Dec 04	$96	+$144	+150%
Will Aston Villa beat Juventus?	Nov 27	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool?	Nov 27	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24?	Nov 26	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP?	Nov 26	$400	+$162	+40%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-24?	Nov 24	$50	+$56	+111%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	10¢	$124	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$608	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	17¢	$130	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	90¢	$1,003	6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	91¢	$156	21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	84¢	$50	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	99¢	$211	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$31	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$31	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	2d
Will Trump say "Capital of the World" during the 2026 State of the Uni	BUY Yes	60¢	$100	110d
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	BUY No	9¢	$10	110d
Will Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	BUY Yes	45¢	$50	110d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	BUY No	19¢	$100	110d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	BUY No	16¢	$100	110d
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?	BUY No	29¢	$200	549d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04?	SELL Yes	60¢	$140	558d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04?	SELL Yes	60¢	$4	558d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04?	SELL Yes	60¢	$95	558d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04?	SELL Yes	60¢	$1	558d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04?	BUY Yes	24¢	$96	558d
Will Aston Villa beat Juventus?	BUY Yes	42¢	$100	565d
Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool?	BUY Yes	24¢	$100	565d
Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP?	SELL Yes	66¢	$430	566d
Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP?	SELL Yes	66¢	$132	566d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.82 · official $61.82 (match) · 38 history records