Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb2ea…fe59 weather 762 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$745 (-5%) realized −$747 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate81%617W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$69
14 days−$55
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$304
sports 6% −$155
crypto 5% −$189
other 4% −$111
finance 3% +$10
tech 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -43.5% -48.9% 53% 9% -19.1%
≤30d 242 -11.5% -20.0% 75% 5% -15.8%
≤90d 758 -7.9% -16.6% 81% 7% -15.1%
all 761 -6.9% -15.7% 81% 7% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 7% -14.8%
10% -23.8% 4% -23.0%
15% -31.2% 3% -30.4%
20% -37.9% 3% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$747
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses617 / 144
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)761 / 762
History coverage94d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 761 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? No 97¢ 98¢ $194 $196 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $5 +$1 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 27 $88 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 27 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 26? Jun 27 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? Jun 27 $48 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 24? Jun 25 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $48 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 21 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $84 +$1 +2%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $660 in May? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Micron (MU) close at $940-$960 on the final day of trading of the Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $49 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $49 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $49 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 93¢ $5 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 93¢ $5 9h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 89¢ $5 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 92¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $39 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $49 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $48 39h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $48 40h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $45 42h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $49 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $48 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $48 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $39 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL No 1¢ $0 6d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 83¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.99 · official $197.60 (match) · 1924 history records