Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2e7…3182 sports 1408 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$472 (-1%) realized −$474 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate89%1244W / 148L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$182
14 days+$248
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$446
other 4% +$62
world 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -2.9% -12.2% 85% 26% -6.2%
≤30d 296 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 26% -8.0%
≤90d 1392 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 19% -8.8%
all 1392 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 19% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 19% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 8% -17.5%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.4% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1244 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1392 / 1408
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 93¢ $105 $114 +$9 (+8%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 84¢ 78¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 82¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 79¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 41¢ 61¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Chicago Sky 96¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 55¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $315 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $321 +$4 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $25 −$3 -11%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 94¢ $20 18m
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 96¢ $11 20m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 96¢ $5 1h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 98¢ $50 1h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Washington Mystics 98¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 96¢ $5 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 94¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 90¢ $5 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $5 20h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 93¢ $5 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 21h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 79¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $5 23h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 23h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $10 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 99¢ $300 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 91¢ $10 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 83¢ $5 25h
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 71¢ $10 26h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $20 27h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 97¢ $10 38h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 95¢ $10 39h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 73¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.13 · official $528.23 (match) · 3500 history records