Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2e3…d1ff other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-1%) realized −$109 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%57W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days−$239
14 days−$239
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$335
sports 38% −$596
weather 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -14.9% -23.0% 47% 47% -16.8%
≤30d 24 -3.0% -12.3% 46% 46% -14.4%
≤90d 78 +16.7% +5.5% 47% 47% -10.8%
all 120 +5.6% -4.4% 48% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 48% -11.4%
10% -13.6% 48% -19.9%
15% -21.9% 46% -27.7%
20% -29.6% 42% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$127 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses57 / 63
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage153d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $187 +$87 (+87%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 34¢ $243 $158 −$85 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $526 −$522 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $369 +$153 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $297 +$72 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$96 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $120 +$136 +114%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $254 +$246 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$289 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +139%
Kouame vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 36.5 May 30 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 26 $102 +$277 +271%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5 May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $103 +$202 +197%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $367 −$363 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $203 +$160 +79%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $356 +$405 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 May 12 $152 +$107 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 13? May 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 13? May 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $305 +$369 +121%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $152 −$150 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $152 −$7 -4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $153 −$150 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $152 +$154 +101%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $100 +$57 +57%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 27 $100 −$98 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $150 −$147 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $150 −$148 -99%
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $132 +$117 +88%
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $247 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $526 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $522 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $369 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $297 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $152 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $256 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $120 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 45¢ $102 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $254 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $543 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $254 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $244 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $102 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 11d
Kouame vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 36.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 18d
Kouame vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $101 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame SELL Moise Kouame 95¢ $379 22d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 32¢ $153 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame BUY Moise Kouame 25¢ $102 23d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $101 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.70 · official $345.74 (match) · 231 history records