Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb2e2…fd1b crypto 661 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$20 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%637W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$35
14 days−$17
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$18
other 11% −$10
finance 2% +$3
tech 2% +$3
politics 1% −$14
sports 0% −$8
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 1% -10.1%
≤30d 650 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 650 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 2% -9.7%
all 650 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses637 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)650 / 661
History coverage30d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 84¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+19%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 89¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 85¢ 22¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-74%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 16¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 16, 3PM ET? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 16, 1PM ET? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 16, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 12h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $30 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.33 · official $53.95 (match) · 1448 history records