Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2e2…54d3 politics 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,915 (+1%) realized +$1,915 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%39W / 132L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,499per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$27
14 days+$0
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$35
politics 40% −$132
sports 9% +$2,015
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$6
world 2% −$1
tech 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +0.4% -9.1% 12% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -6.6% -15.5% 8% 4% -9.5%
all 171 +3.5% -6.4% 23% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 11% -8.9%
10% -15.4% 11% -17.6%
15% -23.5% 10% -25.6%
20% -31.0% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,778) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$8 · ×9.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized+$1,915
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses39 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,499
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $518 $518 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,331 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,498 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,103 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,309 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,165 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,290 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7,495 −$8 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $247 +$4 +2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,860 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9,559 −$10 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,000 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,150 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $8,309 −$10 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,214 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $79 +$74 +93%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,928 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,711 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $847 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $57 +$56 +97%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,331 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $52 +$70 +134%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $374 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,367 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,640 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $610 −$1 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $919 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,193 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $2,617 −$4 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $519 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $334 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $334 6h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 23h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,023 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,160 29h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 31h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 47h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,097 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,139 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,140 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $994 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $995 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $781 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $782 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $808 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $809 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $956 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $957 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $860 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $861 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $247 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,121 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.23 · official $518.23 (match) · 607 history records